The Gambling Game

Author: Denis Frith

It is fascinating that there are many similarities between betting on horse races and investing in the money markets. There are also some profound differences. Some people bet on the races as part of a day out with friends. They are joyous if they have the occasional win but do not take the betting seriously. There are, however, many addicts who do take their betting seriously. They pour over form guides and other means of determining the best bets. They have a naïve belief in their ability to predict the outcome of what is very largely a chance event. They know the average punter will lose because the authorities take a percentage of what is bet. They know that betting on the races is inherently a losing game. But they generally delude them selves about their ability to pick winners. These are the mug punters who keep the racing industry running. They even outlay appreciable sums to get the advice of so-called experts who often claim to have late-breaking inside information on which horses are going to run well. If they were as good as they claim, they would not need to sell their predictions. They are the con artists who make a good living off the mugs. There are also smart punters. They can be smart for a variety of reasons. Some have worked hard at getting an understanding of the many factors that can influence the outcome of a race. They may well have learned how to judge the condition of a horse by watching it parade in the mounting yard. They may have gained appreciation of which races are most predictable and what are the best type of bets by examination of statistics of many past races. They may well know to avoid betting on races when the track conditions increase the uncertainty. They may well have an ability to read the meaning in late plunges. These plunges often occur because the mugs react to false indications. This professional approach may be sufficient for the smart punter to be reasonably certain of profitable betting. Most bookmakers are in the game because they have achieved that type of proficiency. But it is not necessarily sufficient, as many hard working punters know. A really smart punter will learn to appreciate what ability they have achieved and live with it. There are also punters who stand to win because they have inside knowledge. They may get this from being connected to the stables. After all, there are many in the training industry who have a good idea of how well a horse will run by how it has trained in recent weeks as well as how it looks on the day. There are, unfortunately, also occasions when a horse will not run well because of illegal activities. So there is a wide range of punters from the perpetual losers to the perpetual winners, with the former being in the majority because it is inherently a losing game.

They are a similar range of players in the money markets. Many well-off people have been investing in the stock market and real estate on the advice of financial consultants (for hefty fees) for years. And their hopes have largely been realized. They have had no need to appreciate that the investment market is really an unsustainable Ponzi event. Their wealth has been growing so they have been able to enjoy a luxuriant life style with overseas holidays and McMansion homes being their norm. They are akin to the mug punters except they have been playing in a winning game until now. The smart ones amongst these investors will hold on to their gains but the majority believed the hype of the powerful that recent bearish trends were only temporary and business as usual would resume after this short interlude. They are like the mug punters who believe that the system they bought is just having a bad run because the sellers say so. But now the signs are so bad with major banks crashing, the panic is settling in. There can be no comparable situation in the racing game as it is based on solid foundations. Isolated betters can lose fortunes in this game by simple bad luck or bad advice. However, millions can lose their life savings in the financial market game because it does not have these sound foundations. Today’s wealth is largely illusory. The supposed value of McMansions has been based on the fallacious belief that this value will continue to grow for no solid reason what-so-ever. There are also smart players in this financial game. Financial advisors make a good living even when their advice turns sour. Many, no doubt, do their best to provide sound advice but even that assertion is subject to scrutiny as large investment banks fall by the wayside because of very dubious investments. There have been occasions in the past where the racing industry in particular regions have been deemed to be subject to illegal activities and efforts have been then made to clean up the industry. There are signs emerging that the global financial markets have also been subject to widespread illegal manipulation to further weaken its foundations. The sub prime credit crisis is just one example of the elite in the financial industry preying on the gullible public. This disease is spreading rapidly despite the efforts of governments and banking officials to contain it. It is quite likely to end with the catabolic collapse of the global financial system despite the efforts of many knowledgeable and reputable people.

It is ironical that the racing industries in many countries have been suspected of illegal activities in the past and the industries have then done their best to clean up their act. Financial markets have not been subject to a similar scrutiny, doubtless because they have been a winning situation for many, especially the principals. But times are changing. The bubble seems to have burst. Watch out for the blame game as many go under.

About the Author:

Article Source: http://www.articlesbase.com/investing-articles/the-gambling-game-563866.html